What are some ways to counteract normalcy bias and a reliance on past performance? For example, my job is in cyber security and I'd like to make sure that I'm prepared as possible.
A (overly) simplified answer involves three steps:
1. Cultivate your RJDM self-awareness (aka metacognition) and healthy skepticism about your risk instincts and assumptions. (This is the universal and necessary basis for elevating your safe-esteem - one you already seem to possess by being here.)
2. Embrace a probabilistic thinking. (Serious/major incidents are indeed rare - your default forecasts and assumptions that tomorrow will be just like today are not false per se, but they can be a very poor decision-making premise. The risk of getting murdered in the most dangerous cities in the world is still one or two in one 1000 for the average resident over twelve months. This is why most locals will try to convince you: "I lived in XYZ for over ten years... it's not as bad as they say!")
3. Consider the cost of mitigation versus the impact of such rare/extreme events, and determine whether your resilience (your business, finances, etc.) or your survival is worth the effort. (For example, your car commute will 'normally' proceed uneventfully, and your instincts will incrementally suggest it's a safe activity, one you can carry out while holding your smartphone, replying to text messages, etc. Your decision point here is - just like wearing a seatbelt - "Does the cost of putting the phone away, based on the existing evidence on its impact on our awareness and reaction quality, make sense?" (All this can be measured in economic terms, but that's not something we do in everyday life, so better 'simple heuristics' are the way to go.)
I will write more and in greater detail about RJDM and safe-esteem hacks, which is the goal of this space. I am just horribly inconsistent, so please be patient.
What are some ways to counteract normalcy bias and a reliance on past performance? For example, my job is in cyber security and I'd like to make sure that I'm prepared as possible.
A (overly) simplified answer involves three steps:
1. Cultivate your RJDM self-awareness (aka metacognition) and healthy skepticism about your risk instincts and assumptions. (This is the universal and necessary basis for elevating your safe-esteem - one you already seem to possess by being here.)
2. Embrace a probabilistic thinking. (Serious/major incidents are indeed rare - your default forecasts and assumptions that tomorrow will be just like today are not false per se, but they can be a very poor decision-making premise. The risk of getting murdered in the most dangerous cities in the world is still one or two in one 1000 for the average resident over twelve months. This is why most locals will try to convince you: "I lived in XYZ for over ten years... it's not as bad as they say!")
3. Consider the cost of mitigation versus the impact of such rare/extreme events, and determine whether your resilience (your business, finances, etc.) or your survival is worth the effort. (For example, your car commute will 'normally' proceed uneventfully, and your instincts will incrementally suggest it's a safe activity, one you can carry out while holding your smartphone, replying to text messages, etc. Your decision point here is - just like wearing a seatbelt - "Does the cost of putting the phone away, based on the existing evidence on its impact on our awareness and reaction quality, make sense?" (All this can be measured in economic terms, but that's not something we do in everyday life, so better 'simple heuristics' are the way to go.)
I will write more and in greater detail about RJDM and safe-esteem hacks, which is the goal of this space. I am just horribly inconsistent, so please be patient.
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TYVM for the reply and information as it's greatly appreciated. I look forward to future writings on RJDM and will gladly exercise patience!